Lame Man's Terms, Vol.1

I have received responses that said it would be a good idea to give some terms for those who have not been properly initiated into the Wonderful World of Fantasy Baseball. In fact, many readers from the class have expressed sentiments that they don't know much about baseball! Here I present to you, Lame Man's Terms Vol.1

Pitcher: A person who throws the ball to the catcher.
Batter: A person who tries to hit the ball thrown by the pitcher.
Catcher: Tries to catch the ball thrown by the pitcher.
Fielder: similar to a defenseman in other sports, the fielder tries to prevent the other team from scoring.

There are nine fielders, including the pitcher and catcher, on the field at all times. They are: the Infielders: First Baseman, Second Baseman, Third Baseman, Shortstop, and the Outfielders: Left Field, Center Field, and Right Field.


Single: a One-base hit
Double: a Two-Base hit
Triple: a Three-base hit
Home Run: A popular term for "going all the way", a home run is also used to describe what happens when a batter hits the ball and scores on the same play. This usually is because the ball has cleared the outfield fence without hitting the ground.

Stolen Base: When a base runner advances from one base to another in between pitches.
Fly Out: When a batter hits the ball in the air and it is caught before it lands.
Ground Out: When a batter hits the ball and a fielder has the ball in their glove and has their foot on first base before the batter can run and touch first base.

My Not-so-Secret Fetish EXPOSED!

My Not-so-Secret Fetish is...
Batters that hit second behind a good leadoff hitter that can steal bases. This gives the number two hitter lots of RBI possibilities to go along with the run scoring chances they will have. Also, these hitters typically hit for a good average and often have decent pop (10-20 HRs) as well. Often these guys are an afterthought as big league managers and fantasy managers alike zero in on leadoff hitters.
Examples this year will be:
NL East
1. Edgar Renteria
2. Dan Uggla
3. Paul LoDuca
4. Shane Victorino/Aaron Rowand
5. Nationals?

NL Central
6. Mark DeRosa
7. Scott Hatteberg
8. Chris Burke
9. Bill Hall/Johnny Estrada/J.J. Hardy
10. Jack Wilson
11. Chris Duncan

NL West
12. Orlando Hudson/ Chris Young/ Eric Byrnes
13. Kaz Matsui
14. Rafael Furcal/Juan Pierre/Russel Martin
15. Marcus Giles/ Mike Cameron/ Termel Sledge
16. Omar Vizquel

It seems like I got progressively less bold in my predictions towards the end of this list. Here are some more definitive NL West predictions:
Dodgers lead off Pierre, followed by Furcal.
Padres lead off Giles, followed by Cameron. This job could also be won by rookie mouthful Kevin Kouzmanoff or Spicoli-look-alike Kahlil Greene.



Which one is which???












For more on the Spicoli/Greene phenomenon, click on the pictures!



Diamondbacks will bat Stephen Drew leadoff and Hudson second for the start off the season, but I expect a lot of lineup shifting until something works. Other players that could bat first or second in the lineup include rookie Chris Young, rookie Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Eric Byrnes, or Chad Tracy. Basically, no one is a sure bet.
Other teams:
The Nationals will probably leadoff Felipe Lopez and hit Christian Guzman second.
The Brewers are going to leadoff Rickie Weeks and bat Estrada second.
Shane Victorino will probably bat second for the Phillies.

We all love a good ranking right?
So here is a projection of my top 5 number two hitters in the NL this season.

1. Rafael Furcal SS Dodgers. Hitting after Pierre, before Kent & Nomah. 100+ runs scored-.290-15 HR-30 SB is possible. Shandler says he could do even better.
2. Chris Burke 2B/OF Astros. Dual eligiblity and the possibility of 20 SBs makes him a solid threat. Hits after Biggio, before Berkman and Carlos Lee.
3. Shane Victorino OF Phillies. Has had awesome stolen base numbers in the minors. Hits behind Rollins, in front of Utley and Ryan Howard.
4. Chris Duncan OF Cardinals. Hits after Eckstein, before Pujols and Edmonds. Had 22 HRs in 280 AB last year, but that's not consistent with his previously weak minor league totals (more so in BA). I think he will exceed last years totals because he is only 25 years old and I think he is showing improvement.
5. Edgar Renteria SS Braves. May be forced into leadoff spot this year, as it looks like the Braves would otherwise put Martin Prado or Kelly Johnson there. His 2007 numbers of .293-14 HR-100 Runs Scored-70 RBI-17 SB would look good anywhere in a lineup that already includes Chipper Jones, Andrew Jones, Jeff Francour, and Brian McCann.

More importantly, who will outshine the experts' predictions? Here's what I think:
1. Mark DeRosa 2B/3B/Of Cubs. Had a career year last year at 31 years old. I personally think he's got more n him. Will hit after Alfonso Soriano and before Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez!
2. Jack Wilson SS Pirates. Will probably have a tough time putting up bad stats hitting between up-and-coming stars Chris Duffy, Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay.
3. Kazuo Matsui 2B Rockies. Had a great second half (.299, 5 HR, 11 SB, 43 runs scored) after moving from New York to the cold-filtered combines. Will hit after speedy Willy Taveras and before Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe.
4. Dan Uggla 2B Marlins. Hit only .258 in the second half but didn't lose his pop. Hits after Hanley Ramirez, before Miguel Cabrera, Mike Jacobs, and Josh Willingham. Could have a sophomore slump, but I say he's still good for .270-15 HR-80 runs-80 RBI.
5. Omar Vizquel SS GIANTS. I've been telling fellow Giants fans that Omar has already mastered the art of fielding and has now moved on to hitting and baserunning. Had an average of .295 last year with 88 runs scored and 24 stolen bases. That's now two seasons in a row that he has posted 24 steals, always as a number two hitter. Now that he's hitting behind convicted base thief Dave Roberts and in front of Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, Pedro Feliz, and Rich Aurilia for a full season, it is safe to expect improvement, even at age 40.

Just so you know: I hatched this idea last year when I saw that Paul LoDuca would be hitting second for the Mets in a powerhouse lineup. He put up better stats than I imagined he could and it proved to be maybe my best pick.

Also: When a batter hits second, you get to watch them more often. They also get more at-bats.

Stay tuned!

Announcement

No more starting pitcher team feature.
Why not?
1. It's too late. For me to do a complete review on all of the NL pitching staffs, it would have been prudent to start in January or earlier. Plus spring training has already begun, making it hard to do research and keep up on daily events at the same time.
2. I'd rather focus on players that you want to know about, instead of generally speaking on a lot of players, some of which I could care less about because there's no way in hell I would draft them.
So bargain players will be the subject of my next column.
As for the Mets, I think they will not win the NL East this year because there are too many ifs in their rotation. Glavine is getting old, Pedro will be out half the season and maybe more, Pelfrey is too raw, Maine gives up a lot of homers, El Duque is unpredictable, and Oliver Perez might have a nice comeback, or he might not.
The Mets do however have a very good bullpen, anchored by Billy Wagner, the NL's best closer (with the possible exception of Trevor Hoffman).

Pitching Preview: The Phillies

Brett Myers




I've decided to start a new feature. I'm going to preview the starting rotations of all the teams in the National League. Starting in the East, I will hopefully have a good idea of what I'm doing by the time I get to my favorite division, the NL West.

I'm starting with Philadelphia, which is kind of a cheap trick because I've already previewed one of their pitchers (Cole Hamels) in a previous blog post. However, why not encourage you to read my other post? Here is my Phillies Pitching Preview.

Brett Myers
At 26 years old, Mr. Myers is about to enter the prime years of his pitching career. In the two magazines I now have (CBS Sportsline.com Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Index), one ranks him as the 13th best starting pitcher in the major leagues, while the other ranks Myers 56th. Of course, I will resort to the stats to draw my own conclusion.
Brett Myers has never been a master of plate control. What he has gotten a lot better at is striking hitters out. In the last two years, Myers has struck out 397 batters in 413 innings, a rate of about 8.65/9 IP. He also allowed only 18% last years balls put-in-play to be line drives, the lowest such rate of his four-year career. His ERA has been below 4.00 the last two years. Personally, I think Myers is primed for a big year.

Cole Hamels
23 year-old Cole Hamels is a big deal. I learned recently from Ron Shandler that left handers have a longer life expectancy than left brainers in pitching years, and that only says more about Hamels' potential. Hamels struck out 145 batters in 132 innings at the big league level last year, for a command ratio of 9.89 K/9. Something of note...Hamels faced a bases loaded situation in six games last year for a total of three innings pitched. He didn't allow a hit, but he did allow three earned runs. How did this happen? Well, there was one walk, but I suspect the other runs game from either a ground out or a sacrifice fly. Just something of note. Anyway, Hamels is going to put up some major strikeout numbers this year. If you are playing, you want to pick this guy up. That simple.

Freddy Garcia
By a lot of accounts, you could say that the 30 year-old Garcia is the true ace of this ballclub. He is new to the team, but he has 72 wins over his last five seasons. That's an average of nearly 15 wins a season! That's really good, especially when you consider that he has been that good for that long. He also has pitched over 200 innings every single one of those years! Admittedly, I don't know a lot about Mr. Garcia or his fitness regimen, but he must be doing something right if he hasn't seriously injured himself yet. Will this be the year that breaks him? It's hard to say. Garcia also is in a contract year and has declared that he won't talk about his contract once the season starts. Will the Phillies give him a major extension before the regular season begins? Again, it is hard to say, but I am leaning towards no. This is because they are going to have to devote a lot of money to a lot of players sooner or later and Garcia may have already had his best seasons. Unlike Myers and Hamels, Garcia does not strike out a very high number of batters. On a grander level than Myers and Hamels, he has consistently shown an ability to allow a very low percentage of line drives. Many pitchers show improvement when switching from the AL to the NL, and I think this will be the case for Freddy as well. It's hard to expect improvement, but if he stays healthy, I would have to say Garcia wins 15 games again this year.

The Other Three: Adam Eaton, Jamie Moyer, Jon Lieber
As you know, big league clubs never hold six starting pitchers. So one of these three will get cut from the rotation, either before the season or shortly thereafter. I think Eaton will make the rotation, because he is only 29 years old and the Phillies showed they are committed to him by signing him to a three-year contract this past offseason. Why they did that, I don't know. Eaton is an okay pitcher at best, and missed most of last year suffering from a finger injury. He does have an 18-9 record in the last two years combined, and it's hard to argue against that.
The other two could be mistaken for men who are too old to be playing professional baseball. Lieber is 37, and Jamie Moyer is 44 years old. Heck, I heard the Giants need a fifth starter, and Moyer might be old enough to crack the lineup. Grimaces aside, Moyer probably will not make the cut because he had a bad second half last season that was partially due to a rise in home run rate, and the Phillies play in a park where balls are known to leave the yard. Plus Moyer is older than rotten vegetables. That, and he could be mistaken for a pretty female character that used to date J.D. on Scrubs, who was also named Jamie Moyer. She would probably be a lot more valuable than he in a trade offer.
Lieber is very good precision pitcher, but he will leave Phillies fans biting their nails every fifth day because of his high home run rate, which has been 1.4 each of the last two years. He did somehow manage to win 17 games in 2005 with that ratio, but the likelihood of a repeat is low.

Of note: I think the Phillies will score a LOT of runs this year, which should result in high win totals for their big three of Myers, Hamels, and Garcia. Should the Phillies make the playoffs, they could be a very scary opponent for ANY team, Yankees included.

The Best Pitchers in the NL

Roy Oswalt

After reading another great post on Fantasy Baseball Island, I decided to take a look at which NL pitcher will be the best this year. To me, it is a six-headed monster: Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, and Carlos Zambrano. Some notes on each:

Sheets: It seems like he could be the best if healthy. Last year posted 116 K's and only 11 BB's, which are just unheard of numbers. In 2004, he posted even better numbers, when he finished the year with 264 K's, a 2.70 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP. Somehow, he managed to finish that season with a 12-14 record. Was his run support that bad? It's hard to say. Sheets is currently from shoulder problems.

Webb: Last year's NL Cy Young Award Winner, Webb has one of the nastiest sinkerballs in the game of baseball. Not especially dominant on the strikeout end, he wins games by forcing groundouts (2/3 of balls put in play against Webb last year were grounders) and by not giving up a lot of walks (1.9/9 IP last year).

Carpenter: The 2005 NL Cy Young Winner, Carpenter may also suffer burnout this year after pitching 462 innings the last two years. Carpenter has won fifteen or more games the last three years, peaking with 21 in 2005. It is likely that the Cardinals' run support has played a big role in that. Carpenter finished last season with a second half (9-4, 0.96 WHIP, 5.6 K/BB) that he doesn't get worn down by the end of a full season.

Oswalt: Is the lone ranger in Houston now that Pettitte has returned to New York and Roger Clemens may not be returning. Does not get a lot of strikeouts, but Oswalt is Mr. Reliable, as he has finished with an ERA of 3.01 or less four of the last five years. Had a second half similar to Carpenter's (9-5, 5.4 K/BB). Has had 20 wins two of the last three years.

Peavy: Has awesome strikeout ability, recording 100 K's in each half last year. A troubling trend emerged though, as Peavy's command ratio dipped by two whole points in the second half due to his loss of strike zone control. Should improve upon last years 11-14 record. May benefit from pitching alongside Greg Maddux all season.

Carlos Zambrano: For someone who started pitching exclusively at the major league level when he was twenty years old, Zambrano has not suffered, yet. He may, as he has pitched 200 or more innings each of the last four years. Has never had very good control of the strike zone, so last years 1.29 WHIP shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Has an awesome strikeout ratio (8.0 or better three years in a row).

So by my earliest estimates, here's my ranking:
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Brandon Webb
3. Chris Carpenter
4. Ben Sheets
5. Jake Peavy
6. Carlos Zambrano

Stay tuned!