A Big Deal

Andruw Jones for Tim Lincecum



Surprise, surprise, the blog lives on.

Now I report on my NL-only team and it's latest happenings.

We Have won a game and are now sort of out of the cellar. The team is tied for last place, though it is 7th out of ten teams in overall points scored.

The Fearsome Foursome remains. For the sake of refreshing all of our memories, it is

Cole Hamels
Ian Snell
Aaron Harang
Chris R. Young

and I have two semi-established closers

Kevin Gregg and Dan Wheeler

plus three other starting pitchers

Micah Owings
Jon Lieber
Brad Thompson

and one other relief pitcher

Angel Guzman

to compete for my sevnth and final pitching spot each week.

So why oh why would I do This?

Andruw Jones (pick #11 overall in the draft) for Tim Lincecum (undrafted in the draft)

A walk on the wild side, a risk, dumb fanmanship. All good reasons.

But no. I did it because I think Andruw Jones will get hurt.

Take a look at his picture above. If you have seen him swing recently, feel free to skip ahead in the post. Please, be my guest.

Otherwais, check out the pic. Tell me that is a good way to swing, just tell me that. You're wrong. Andruw Jones is desperate to hit the ball out of the park is what's happening.

I'm sure you've herd he's in a contract year. That's one of the main reasons I got him.

I started to get a little concerned a few weeks ago (maybe a month or so actually) when I tuned into the Braves game on TBS to hear the broadcasters talking about Andrew's 30th birthday. They said they asked him what it felt like to be thirty, and basically his response led me to believe that he felt like his best days were behind him. Not exactly the sort of thing a guy in his contract year is supposed to say. Maybe he was drunk.

So anybody who has Ben Following his stats this year knows that his BA is even below his career average of .266

BTW, Jones has only eclipsed that total twice four times in 12 major league seasons. He did three times between 1998-2000, then again in 2003, when he hit .277 for the whole season. The explanation for the high average (what a relative term!) is that he hit .303 in the year 2000.

Otherwise he has never sustained a BA above .277 for an entire season.

But of course I got him for the home runs. Of which he has eight. If he was to hit sixty, as some have suggested, then he would have twenty by now. And I saw one of his homeruns over the weekend. It barely cleared the fence.

Now I could get all into trajectory here and explain how his new swing is going to mostly result in flyouts, okay essentially I have just done that. Basically, line drives usually turn into homeruns when the hitter gets the bat just slightly under the ball and cranks it. What Andruw Jones is trying to do with this new swing is to hit fly balls *hoping* that they will leave the yard. That of course is not the *proper* way to hit gopher balls. It's like Jones just read Moneyball and realized that he is not a good singles hitter, therefore he must try to hit as many homeruns as possible, thus the change in his swing. What Jones hasn't realized yet is that he's retadred. Sucks for the Braves. I liked em better when they had Maddux and Glavine anyway.

It's really too bad, cause the Braves have gotten better, what with the comeuppance of Kelly Johnson, Willie Harris, Kyle Davies and friends.

Oh yeah, I forgot (almost) to explain why I think Jones will get hurt. Well if you still want to know, then ask me. I'm going to bed.

Eating my cake and trading for more

I may be in trouble, but not to worry, I will go the distance.

Okay, so for now I have Adam Kennedy at second base. He has done well the last two days and the rest of my team has picked up the slack. So far, it has been an outstanding week for my teem. So I'm knocking on wood, crossing my fingers, and am open to more superstitious suggestions that could help my luck continue.

Still Conor Jackson slumps. There has been a move by the D-Backs that left me very disconcerted a few days ago. They started Chad Tracy at first base. I guess he can play first; I didn't know that.

Before I already had a problem, because the Diamondbacks were starting Tony Clark at first against right-handed pitching and sometimes just for the heck of it. With Jackson slumping and then getting hurt and then slumping again, things were looking bad. What's worse, I didn't have (and still don't have) a backup to play first base! So I've been trying to trade for one.

The good/bad/ugly news is that I now have six good outfielders. Our leegue only has us start three, along with one utility player. In order of projected value, my six are

Andruw Jones
Juan Pierre
Carlos Quentin
Chris Duncan
Chris Duffy
Hunter Pence

though I actually think Pence will outperform Duffy if he continues to play everyday. Preseason forecasts did NOT expect Pence to take over the center field job before May.

Mor on that point: I think Phil Garner is freaking out a little too much. He already demoted closer Brad Lidge within the first two weeks of the season, and almost altogether stopped playing Chris Burke, his opening day center fielder and second hitter. And it's now like Burke was batting 100, rather he was batting about 220. Furthermore he had five steals and several doubles.

Well Garner is the manager; I am not. Obviously I would rather have Burke playing everyday. However, I am grateful that Kennedy has done so well his first two days on my team. In fact, he's competing to be Tony La Russa's everyday leadoff hitter in St. Louis!

Oh yeah the trade. I am trying to trade my two top outfielders for Lance Berkman and Rich Aurilia. This would give me eligibility at first base from both players and also Ss and 3b eligibilly from Aurilia.

I think it would be a good deal for me; of course I would like feedback if you'd like to provide it.

Cellar Strife in the NL Only League

It's been a crazy week in baseball. Roger Clemens is returning to the Bronx. Tim Lincecum made his debut. Bengie Molina became the first Giant to hit two homers in an inning since Willie McCovey did it in 1977. But the sad saga of my troubles in the NL Experts league continues.

My pitching actually seems great. Between the solid foursome of Aaron Harang, Chris Young the pitcher, Ian Snell, and Cole Hamels, I have a pretty outstanding staff. Coupled with closer-for-now Dan Wheeler and split-time closer for the we-are-officialy-back Atlanta Braves Rafael Soriano, that's six of the seven pitchers required each week. I finally got rid of dead wood Woody Williams, who has started the season 0-5, and I gave up on Pedro Martinez, because I need results now. For now, Micah Owings is my seventh pitcher, and Prince bopper Matt Capps is on my bench. I figure if I feel like it, I can grab a weak two-start pitcher off of waivers each week in exchange for one of my weak bench players.

Speaking of weak bench players, that's currently where Chris Burke stands, er, sits I mean. Chris Burke is the player that has me most engulfed in flames. He gives me the rage to go out and kick ass, but at the same time, has left me in a situation that if is not cured could ultimately lead to something being broken, probably this chair I'm sitting on.

The thing is, it's not all his fault, but it's close to 50% his fault. His manager should just have more patience with him. But apparently Phil Garner thinks they need more power right now. It's weird, I sort of assumed that wouldn't be problem before the season because they have Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman. I got Burke super-early in the draft because I knew he would be starting every day in center field, and I saw him putting up 270-15 HR-30 SB. Plus he would have second base eligibilty, and I thought those were pretty good numbers for a second baseman. He wasn't at the top of my list, but it was about Round 8-10, and I didn't have a second baseman yet, so he seemed like a good deal. I didn't want to be left with a backup to start the season. In the last round of the draft, I grabbed Kaz Matsui as insurance in case something happened to Burke.

In the first two weeks, I felt like I had played it wonderfully. Matsui was hitting over 350 with five steals, looking like the best 22nd round pick of the draft. Burke had five steals also, but wasn't hitting very well. No problem, I thought, I'll just put him on my bench. It became a problem when Matsui left a game with back spasms. Soon he was on the DL.

I didn't think back spasms were such a big injury. After all, Adam Dunn left a game with back spasms around the same time as Matsui and was back in the lineup the next day, no problem at all. However, as mentioned in a previous post, Dunn is 6-6, 275, and superhuman. Matsui is definitely not. Matsui is too skinny for baseball.

Rubbish, you might say. You're thinking, baseball's not even for athletes. The all-time home run king Babe Ruth was a fatass! He enjoyed beers, cigars, and debaucherous women after ballgames! You ought to be proud to own a fit speedster like Kaz Matsui! And yet, somehow I'm not.

What I'm saying is that Matsui is not fat enough for baseball. I hope this does not mean I am cursed to excessive back pain later own, though I may be due to my scoliosis and bad posture.

Now this doesn't mean I'm going to drop Matsui. After all, he should still start at second base for the Rockies when he returns. That's a good place to play baseball if you're a hitter trying to impress Ben by putting up good numbers for his fantasy teem. And he should be back by the end of this month, though I'm awfully skeptical of that. It already has been pushed back. It's been almost a month now and he's just starting to run. He hasn't yet begun Triple A rehab games. So I'm a bit worried.

Burke on the other hand is riding the pine. Houston has brought up Triple A slugger Hunter Pence to play, and the weird thing about that is that he instantly became the starting center fielder for the Astros. In the almost ten games since Houston brought up Pence, Burke has only had about three at-bats as a pinch hitter. He has not made one start. Oh and that second base ability, forget about it. Houston wouldn't dream of benching Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, and even backup Mark Loretta is outplaying Burke right now.

Woe is me. Vote on my polls. Give me feedback. Just don't do drugs. Or be dumb. Excessively. You can be dumb in moderation, I grant you permission.

Freddy Sanchez vs. Robinson Cano

vs.
Ok, switching gears. I have an internal debate I have been letting float around my head for a few days now and I can't make a decision. Someone in my mixed league just let go of
Freddy Sanchez 2b/3b/Ss Pirates
last weekend. The only guy I feel I can afford to drop is
Robinson Cano 2b Yankees
Pros to making the switch
1. and its a big one: Triple Position Elgibility
This is especially a big deal because he is elgible at two positions where I currently have no backup. Furthermore, if I made this switch, it would mean I have a backup at every position!
2. everyday moves
Though it's really an extension of pro number one, it's important to note that there will be several instances this season in which either my shortstop or third baseman gets an off day and Sanchez does not. Thing is, he probably could only help me in RBI's, as he only had 6 HR's last year. He might even be hurting me in BA and OPS (yes you're right we should only have OPS, not BA) on the days I do put him in. I think he will have more RBIs this year though because the Pirates lineup is improved. But there's no way he hits 340 again. Also I might start Sanchez whenever he plays in Colorado, though these instances will probably be few and far between (I'm not going to look it up right now).
Cons to making the switch
1. Cano's power potential
Robinson has potential to be a big star. He did hit 340 something last year, and still hits behind A-Rod, Jeter, and several other good hitters.
2. Age
Cano is 24, Sanchez is 29. Most indications are that Sanchez would be a better chance not to repeat last years success. Cano is more likely to improve, though I don't think he will hit 340 again either.

Lips a flappin'

Well so I tied last week in my mixed league. 5-5. It was a good comeback by me. But I've got a problem. My opponents are sure to see my bullpen deficiency and exploit it. Being that I have so many starting pitchers on my team, my opponents can see that I will win the strikeout and wins catgories, but will probably finish with a relatively high ERA and WHIP.

Ok, off the topic, but did anyone else see that the Giants are 9-8! (Knocking on my face, which actually is not very wooden at all, so I guess I'm just hitting myself for fun, oh well...it was kind of exciting, slightly painful, but overwhelmingly in dearring to no one else but me) (What if our faces were made out of wood?) (It'd be harder to break your nose, thats for sure)

So yeah, teams can exploit my surplus of starting P's by pitching a bunch of good relievers. The max innings a team must post in a week is 7. To me, this stinks. I didn't realize this before now, and it does add an element to the game, an element that so far has not grown on me (tho maybe it will).

About my mixed league

I am now in a battle for first place, as I mentioned in Tuesday's post. As of now, I am behind 3 to 6, with one tie. My opponent leads in four of the batting categories (HR, RBI, BA, and OPS). Yes OPS is a category in this league, which of course is awesome. I lead in stolen bases, and as long as Jose Reyes doesn't get hurt, I have a good chance to win. I HAVE been helped by Adam Dunn. One day I'll write a whole post on that guy. For now, my food for thought: Has there ever been a player even remotely like him? In the first week, Dunn had a game in which he hit a home run AND THEN stole TWO more bases IN THE SAME GAME! Sounds like Ricky Henderson/Jose Reyes territory, right? Except Dunn is 6-6, 275. Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat??????? Superhuman Superhuman Superhuman Superhuman Superhuman Superhuman. And so much more.

I am trailing in ERA and WHIP, but winning in Wins and Strikeouts. We are tied in saves. It seems his strategy this week has been to start all his relievers, of which he has FIVE. He really has no choice, because he is having severe starter problems. Of his starters, Kelvim Escobar and now Jason Schmidt are on the DL, Brett Myers has been relocated to the 'pen, and Rich Harden is even having shoulder problems. Poor guy, though he is beating me now, he might have a tough time winning the strikeout and win categories for a long time. I think he seems okay with this strategy though. Five relievers will get your team plenty of saves and should keep era and whip low.
His five relievers are
Mariano Riviera
Joe Nathan
Francisco Cordero
Dan Wheeler
Jon Broxton
So I'd say he's in pretty god shape to beat my three of
Takashi Saito
Billy Wagner
Jason Frasor
But maybe I'll get lucky.

I also might come back in the hitting categories, though it'll be tough if A-Rod continues at this insane pace (he's on my opponents team). Don't be surprised if he breaks the home run record this year. A-Rod is possibly the Greatest Baseball Player Ever. Yankees fans better recognize. There was a rumor the Giants might go after him in the offseason. One can always dream. Sweet dreams baby as Roy would say.

My digital story with no audio (yet)

An update (finally)

I know it has been waaaay too long (my apologies), but I've returned to save the earth, as Tom York would say.

One might ask how??

Well, I don't have an answer for that but I will tell you about my fantasy basball teamS!

The first league is an NL-only league. It is a CBS-Sportsline run league called NL Experts; it's a champions league, accessable only by people who have won their league before. That makes me feel speacial.

The second league is a mixed league. I was invited three hours prior to the draft by a longtime friend. Despite the fact that I knew very little about AL players, it was on! I was and still am determined to give it my best. As of now I am tied for first out of eight teams. This week I am engaged in a showdown with my first place comrade.

In my "expert" league, I am in last place. That's right, last. Is it frustrating? Very frustrating it is. Freaked out I am sure not to be. The best thing to do is to play it cool. I have made a few well calculated moves. The best thing I did was to drop Rafael Soriano and pick up Dan Wheeler. I did this before the season started, so when Wheeler slid into the closer job, I was already on it. I got lucky, though. I even had tried to trade for Lidge! That brings me to perhaps my biggest mistake of the draft. Chris burke at 91. Although he has duel elgibility at 2b and Of, and although he has 4 Sb's already, he is hitting under .200! There is talk that he may lose his job to hot-hitting Hunter Pence from the Astros' AAA team. This is ok, for now my last pick has been a gem. Kaz Matsui at pick 211 211 211 211 in the last round. Except for now he has hurt his back and is out for two weeks. That's fine, Burke makes for a suitable replacement. Hopefully Matsui recovers within two weeks and it isn't longer than that.

The place I really blew it was relievers. I failed to pick up a legit closer, and oh how it burned me. So far Wheeler, Linebrink, and Capps have yet to pay dividends, and that really hurts. Wheeler should get a save or two this week, but I'd really like to have about five a week from my team, in the form of two legit closers. I think the chances of Capps taking over for Torres at some point this season are about 50/50, but for now Capps isn't helping me that much. Linebrink will only be a closer if Hoffman gets hurt. I like Hoffman, so I don't really want him to get hurt, but man I just wish someone would drop a bomb on Torres. Giants fans know how that goes. Despite all that, here is a story about Torres written by Tim Kurkjian of ESPN.

Also, I am really hurting at first base. I knew Conor Jackson was only going to be a subpar option at first, but I didn't know we would be this bad. My replacement option Scott Thorman has been much worse, resulting in his being cut from my team. :( I'll think about picking him up later, but for now Jackson is my man at first. I side with Jackson's real life manager Bob Melvin, who says that he will continue to be their number one first baseman despite his hitting struggles.

All yaa'l mofos gotta vote on my poll

I'm just sayin.

Baseball Tradition

Click on the picture to watch my video!


Bill Murray, sausage races, and home runs are all a part of baseball tradition.

In the video, Bill Murray is talking about the national anthem. Anthems of the world can be heard here. When a country hosts a baseball game everyone hears their anthem. Fort McHenry is the battle that inspired Francis Scott Key to write the Star-Spangled Banner, which is the United States National Anthem.

You may have noticed in the Carlos Delgado clip, that is the first home run, that a giant apple emerged from a cup. Why is this, you ask? Well after the events of September 11, the people of New York City felt it was time to bring peace to the world. So they decided to commemorate the memory of the Beatles and the Apple Records by putting a mechanical apple in their stadium that would mark peace, love, and politics every time someone hit a home run. Improbable, you say? That's right. It's because New York is The Big Apple, dummy.

More information on Apple Corps.

More information on Carlos Delgado and the Cuban Revolution. I can't say for sure, but Carlos might have been named after Carlos Delgado Chalbaud, the 47th President of Venezuela.

Many people credit Iraq as the inventor of sausages. Did you know that? Well anyway, sausage races are a great tradition in Milwaukee.

Lame Man's Terms, Vol.1

I have received responses that said it would be a good idea to give some terms for those who have not been properly initiated into the Wonderful World of Fantasy Baseball. In fact, many readers from the class have expressed sentiments that they don't know much about baseball! Here I present to you, Lame Man's Terms Vol.1

Pitcher: A person who throws the ball to the catcher.
Batter: A person who tries to hit the ball thrown by the pitcher.
Catcher: Tries to catch the ball thrown by the pitcher.
Fielder: similar to a defenseman in other sports, the fielder tries to prevent the other team from scoring.

There are nine fielders, including the pitcher and catcher, on the field at all times. They are: the Infielders: First Baseman, Second Baseman, Third Baseman, Shortstop, and the Outfielders: Left Field, Center Field, and Right Field.


Single: a One-base hit
Double: a Two-Base hit
Triple: a Three-base hit
Home Run: A popular term for "going all the way", a home run is also used to describe what happens when a batter hits the ball and scores on the same play. This usually is because the ball has cleared the outfield fence without hitting the ground.

Stolen Base: When a base runner advances from one base to another in between pitches.
Fly Out: When a batter hits the ball in the air and it is caught before it lands.
Ground Out: When a batter hits the ball and a fielder has the ball in their glove and has their foot on first base before the batter can run and touch first base.

My Not-so-Secret Fetish EXPOSED!

My Not-so-Secret Fetish is...
Batters that hit second behind a good leadoff hitter that can steal bases. This gives the number two hitter lots of RBI possibilities to go along with the run scoring chances they will have. Also, these hitters typically hit for a good average and often have decent pop (10-20 HRs) as well. Often these guys are an afterthought as big league managers and fantasy managers alike zero in on leadoff hitters.
Examples this year will be:
NL East
1. Edgar Renteria
2. Dan Uggla
3. Paul LoDuca
4. Shane Victorino/Aaron Rowand
5. Nationals?

NL Central
6. Mark DeRosa
7. Scott Hatteberg
8. Chris Burke
9. Bill Hall/Johnny Estrada/J.J. Hardy
10. Jack Wilson
11. Chris Duncan

NL West
12. Orlando Hudson/ Chris Young/ Eric Byrnes
13. Kaz Matsui
14. Rafael Furcal/Juan Pierre/Russel Martin
15. Marcus Giles/ Mike Cameron/ Termel Sledge
16. Omar Vizquel

It seems like I got progressively less bold in my predictions towards the end of this list. Here are some more definitive NL West predictions:
Dodgers lead off Pierre, followed by Furcal.
Padres lead off Giles, followed by Cameron. This job could also be won by rookie mouthful Kevin Kouzmanoff or Spicoli-look-alike Kahlil Greene.



Which one is which???












For more on the Spicoli/Greene phenomenon, click on the pictures!



Diamondbacks will bat Stephen Drew leadoff and Hudson second for the start off the season, but I expect a lot of lineup shifting until something works. Other players that could bat first or second in the lineup include rookie Chris Young, rookie Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Eric Byrnes, or Chad Tracy. Basically, no one is a sure bet.
Other teams:
The Nationals will probably leadoff Felipe Lopez and hit Christian Guzman second.
The Brewers are going to leadoff Rickie Weeks and bat Estrada second.
Shane Victorino will probably bat second for the Phillies.

We all love a good ranking right?
So here is a projection of my top 5 number two hitters in the NL this season.

1. Rafael Furcal SS Dodgers. Hitting after Pierre, before Kent & Nomah. 100+ runs scored-.290-15 HR-30 SB is possible. Shandler says he could do even better.
2. Chris Burke 2B/OF Astros. Dual eligiblity and the possibility of 20 SBs makes him a solid threat. Hits after Biggio, before Berkman and Carlos Lee.
3. Shane Victorino OF Phillies. Has had awesome stolen base numbers in the minors. Hits behind Rollins, in front of Utley and Ryan Howard.
4. Chris Duncan OF Cardinals. Hits after Eckstein, before Pujols and Edmonds. Had 22 HRs in 280 AB last year, but that's not consistent with his previously weak minor league totals (more so in BA). I think he will exceed last years totals because he is only 25 years old and I think he is showing improvement.
5. Edgar Renteria SS Braves. May be forced into leadoff spot this year, as it looks like the Braves would otherwise put Martin Prado or Kelly Johnson there. His 2007 numbers of .293-14 HR-100 Runs Scored-70 RBI-17 SB would look good anywhere in a lineup that already includes Chipper Jones, Andrew Jones, Jeff Francour, and Brian McCann.

More importantly, who will outshine the experts' predictions? Here's what I think:
1. Mark DeRosa 2B/3B/Of Cubs. Had a career year last year at 31 years old. I personally think he's got more n him. Will hit after Alfonso Soriano and before Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez!
2. Jack Wilson SS Pirates. Will probably have a tough time putting up bad stats hitting between up-and-coming stars Chris Duffy, Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay.
3. Kazuo Matsui 2B Rockies. Had a great second half (.299, 5 HR, 11 SB, 43 runs scored) after moving from New York to the cold-filtered combines. Will hit after speedy Willy Taveras and before Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe.
4. Dan Uggla 2B Marlins. Hit only .258 in the second half but didn't lose his pop. Hits after Hanley Ramirez, before Miguel Cabrera, Mike Jacobs, and Josh Willingham. Could have a sophomore slump, but I say he's still good for .270-15 HR-80 runs-80 RBI.
5. Omar Vizquel SS GIANTS. I've been telling fellow Giants fans that Omar has already mastered the art of fielding and has now moved on to hitting and baserunning. Had an average of .295 last year with 88 runs scored and 24 stolen bases. That's now two seasons in a row that he has posted 24 steals, always as a number two hitter. Now that he's hitting behind convicted base thief Dave Roberts and in front of Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, Pedro Feliz, and Rich Aurilia for a full season, it is safe to expect improvement, even at age 40.

Just so you know: I hatched this idea last year when I saw that Paul LoDuca would be hitting second for the Mets in a powerhouse lineup. He put up better stats than I imagined he could and it proved to be maybe my best pick.

Also: When a batter hits second, you get to watch them more often. They also get more at-bats.

Stay tuned!

Announcement

No more starting pitcher team feature.
Why not?
1. It's too late. For me to do a complete review on all of the NL pitching staffs, it would have been prudent to start in January or earlier. Plus spring training has already begun, making it hard to do research and keep up on daily events at the same time.
2. I'd rather focus on players that you want to know about, instead of generally speaking on a lot of players, some of which I could care less about because there's no way in hell I would draft them.
So bargain players will be the subject of my next column.
As for the Mets, I think they will not win the NL East this year because there are too many ifs in their rotation. Glavine is getting old, Pedro will be out half the season and maybe more, Pelfrey is too raw, Maine gives up a lot of homers, El Duque is unpredictable, and Oliver Perez might have a nice comeback, or he might not.
The Mets do however have a very good bullpen, anchored by Billy Wagner, the NL's best closer (with the possible exception of Trevor Hoffman).

Pitching Preview: The Phillies

Brett Myers




I've decided to start a new feature. I'm going to preview the starting rotations of all the teams in the National League. Starting in the East, I will hopefully have a good idea of what I'm doing by the time I get to my favorite division, the NL West.

I'm starting with Philadelphia, which is kind of a cheap trick because I've already previewed one of their pitchers (Cole Hamels) in a previous blog post. However, why not encourage you to read my other post? Here is my Phillies Pitching Preview.

Brett Myers
At 26 years old, Mr. Myers is about to enter the prime years of his pitching career. In the two magazines I now have (CBS Sportsline.com Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Index), one ranks him as the 13th best starting pitcher in the major leagues, while the other ranks Myers 56th. Of course, I will resort to the stats to draw my own conclusion.
Brett Myers has never been a master of plate control. What he has gotten a lot better at is striking hitters out. In the last two years, Myers has struck out 397 batters in 413 innings, a rate of about 8.65/9 IP. He also allowed only 18% last years balls put-in-play to be line drives, the lowest such rate of his four-year career. His ERA has been below 4.00 the last two years. Personally, I think Myers is primed for a big year.

Cole Hamels
23 year-old Cole Hamels is a big deal. I learned recently from Ron Shandler that left handers have a longer life expectancy than left brainers in pitching years, and that only says more about Hamels' potential. Hamels struck out 145 batters in 132 innings at the big league level last year, for a command ratio of 9.89 K/9. Something of note...Hamels faced a bases loaded situation in six games last year for a total of three innings pitched. He didn't allow a hit, but he did allow three earned runs. How did this happen? Well, there was one walk, but I suspect the other runs game from either a ground out or a sacrifice fly. Just something of note. Anyway, Hamels is going to put up some major strikeout numbers this year. If you are playing, you want to pick this guy up. That simple.

Freddy Garcia
By a lot of accounts, you could say that the 30 year-old Garcia is the true ace of this ballclub. He is new to the team, but he has 72 wins over his last five seasons. That's an average of nearly 15 wins a season! That's really good, especially when you consider that he has been that good for that long. He also has pitched over 200 innings every single one of those years! Admittedly, I don't know a lot about Mr. Garcia or his fitness regimen, but he must be doing something right if he hasn't seriously injured himself yet. Will this be the year that breaks him? It's hard to say. Garcia also is in a contract year and has declared that he won't talk about his contract once the season starts. Will the Phillies give him a major extension before the regular season begins? Again, it is hard to say, but I am leaning towards no. This is because they are going to have to devote a lot of money to a lot of players sooner or later and Garcia may have already had his best seasons. Unlike Myers and Hamels, Garcia does not strike out a very high number of batters. On a grander level than Myers and Hamels, he has consistently shown an ability to allow a very low percentage of line drives. Many pitchers show improvement when switching from the AL to the NL, and I think this will be the case for Freddy as well. It's hard to expect improvement, but if he stays healthy, I would have to say Garcia wins 15 games again this year.

The Other Three: Adam Eaton, Jamie Moyer, Jon Lieber
As you know, big league clubs never hold six starting pitchers. So one of these three will get cut from the rotation, either before the season or shortly thereafter. I think Eaton will make the rotation, because he is only 29 years old and the Phillies showed they are committed to him by signing him to a three-year contract this past offseason. Why they did that, I don't know. Eaton is an okay pitcher at best, and missed most of last year suffering from a finger injury. He does have an 18-9 record in the last two years combined, and it's hard to argue against that.
The other two could be mistaken for men who are too old to be playing professional baseball. Lieber is 37, and Jamie Moyer is 44 years old. Heck, I heard the Giants need a fifth starter, and Moyer might be old enough to crack the lineup. Grimaces aside, Moyer probably will not make the cut because he had a bad second half last season that was partially due to a rise in home run rate, and the Phillies play in a park where balls are known to leave the yard. Plus Moyer is older than rotten vegetables. That, and he could be mistaken for a pretty female character that used to date J.D. on Scrubs, who was also named Jamie Moyer. She would probably be a lot more valuable than he in a trade offer.
Lieber is very good precision pitcher, but he will leave Phillies fans biting their nails every fifth day because of his high home run rate, which has been 1.4 each of the last two years. He did somehow manage to win 17 games in 2005 with that ratio, but the likelihood of a repeat is low.

Of note: I think the Phillies will score a LOT of runs this year, which should result in high win totals for their big three of Myers, Hamels, and Garcia. Should the Phillies make the playoffs, they could be a very scary opponent for ANY team, Yankees included.

The Best Pitchers in the NL

Roy Oswalt

After reading another great post on Fantasy Baseball Island, I decided to take a look at which NL pitcher will be the best this year. To me, it is a six-headed monster: Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, and Carlos Zambrano. Some notes on each:

Sheets: It seems like he could be the best if healthy. Last year posted 116 K's and only 11 BB's, which are just unheard of numbers. In 2004, he posted even better numbers, when he finished the year with 264 K's, a 2.70 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP. Somehow, he managed to finish that season with a 12-14 record. Was his run support that bad? It's hard to say. Sheets is currently from shoulder problems.

Webb: Last year's NL Cy Young Award Winner, Webb has one of the nastiest sinkerballs in the game of baseball. Not especially dominant on the strikeout end, he wins games by forcing groundouts (2/3 of balls put in play against Webb last year were grounders) and by not giving up a lot of walks (1.9/9 IP last year).

Carpenter: The 2005 NL Cy Young Winner, Carpenter may also suffer burnout this year after pitching 462 innings the last two years. Carpenter has won fifteen or more games the last three years, peaking with 21 in 2005. It is likely that the Cardinals' run support has played a big role in that. Carpenter finished last season with a second half (9-4, 0.96 WHIP, 5.6 K/BB) that he doesn't get worn down by the end of a full season.

Oswalt: Is the lone ranger in Houston now that Pettitte has returned to New York and Roger Clemens may not be returning. Does not get a lot of strikeouts, but Oswalt is Mr. Reliable, as he has finished with an ERA of 3.01 or less four of the last five years. Had a second half similar to Carpenter's (9-5, 5.4 K/BB). Has had 20 wins two of the last three years.

Peavy: Has awesome strikeout ability, recording 100 K's in each half last year. A troubling trend emerged though, as Peavy's command ratio dipped by two whole points in the second half due to his loss of strike zone control. Should improve upon last years 11-14 record. May benefit from pitching alongside Greg Maddux all season.

Carlos Zambrano: For someone who started pitching exclusively at the major league level when he was twenty years old, Zambrano has not suffered, yet. He may, as he has pitched 200 or more innings each of the last four years. Has never had very good control of the strike zone, so last years 1.29 WHIP shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Has an awesome strikeout ratio (8.0 or better three years in a row).

So by my earliest estimates, here's my ranking:
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Brandon Webb
3. Chris Carpenter
4. Ben Sheets
5. Jake Peavy
6. Carlos Zambrano

Stay tuned!

Cain and Hamels

Amongst the rankings I have seen so far, there hasn't been a most improved list yet. By this, I am talking about the players who statistically will improve the most upon last year's totals. I feel the leaders amongst National League pitchers are going to be Matt Cain of the Giants and Cole Hamels of the Phillies. Cain is 22 years old, Hamels is 23. Last year, Cain spent the entire season as the number four starter for the Giants, which is where he will be again to start this season. Hamels spent last year splitting time between AAA and the bigs. It seems that Hamels may be a year behind Cain in overall progress despite being a year older. Is Cain going to be the better pitcher? We will have to wait and see, but February is a good month for speculation I suppose. Here are Cain's numbers in 2005, when he split time between the minors and the majors, pitted against Hamels' numbers last year.
Cain (2005): 12-6, 3.35 ERA, 9.5 k/9, 3.5 bb/9, 191 IP.
Hamels (2006): 11-8, 3.59 ERA, 10.2 k/9, 2.8 bb/9, 155 IP.
Just to clarify, that's a 3.6 CMD ratio for Hamels to Cain's 2.7 in 2005. Thing is, Cain's walk rate actually rose to 4.1 last year, his first full season in the majors. But I'm confident that at 22 years old, Cain has time to work out his control issues. Things could be a lot worse for sure. Hamels actually posted a behemoth 6.2 bb/9 in AA ball in 2005, which I have to assume was discrepency based on the small sample size (19 IP). Still, that's pretty strange. For now I'm going to leave this debate open.
Other rising stars: Scott Olsen (Marlins), Chuck James (Braves)

Blog Review: Fantasy Baseball Island

Sponsored by Fantasy Baseball Express, this blog here is mostly focused on the National League. No Dh's or fluff on this blog- just good looking rankings. The topics on Fantasy Baseball Island change between analysis of the hot/not players on NL teams and rankings of the top players at individual NL positions. There are no pictures here, but I like the format of this page. It's just a simple page with a white background and type in black, blue, and red. Easy on the eyes, just how I like it. This painting is called Alegoría de la Santa Eucaristía, and it was painted in 1750 by Miguel Cabrera, who happens to share a name with the current Florida Marlins 24 year old, who is featured on this blog as the number one fantasy third baseman in the National League this season.

Blog Review: MLB Front Office

This blog is for anyone who is interested in fantasy baseball but doesn't enjoy looking at lots of numbers and charts. Though the stats are here, this blog has more artistic value than most. One feature of this blog is a review of a mock draft that blog author Brad Stewart participated in. Even better is a countdown of the top 25 fantasy baseball players this year, complete with lengthy analysis. A great site for those who love rankings. Pictured here is Jimmy Rollins, #23 on the list.

Blog Review: Baseball Analysts

From the wonderful database of baseball blogs aptly titled baseblogs.net comes this blog called Baseball Analysts which is quite simply the closest thing to what I've been searching for so far. The most recent post is an interview with Nate Silver, the inventor of PECOTA - Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. This is great stuff for gritty numerical analysis. It doesn't provide much in aesthetic value though- were it my blog I would color it up a little bit, maybe add some more graphics or a background design. On the flip side, it's hard to argue with a plain white background when it comes time to intensely pore over some information.

Preparing for The Season: Initial Steps

The fantasy season started for me last year on Christmas when I unwrapped a hardback copy of Fantasyland by Sam Walker, which was a present from my father. In the book, Wall Street Journal writer Walker is invited to play in an experts league called Tout Wars, a league founded by Ron Shandler. For more on Shandler, click here.

The Season Has Already Started

Fantasy Baseball Players, Rotisserie Baseball Players, and All Other Observers: The time has begun to prepare for the 2007 baseball season.